TPLF, Eritrea, and Ethopia are headed to war

In April, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reinstated its government in the Tigray region of Ethopia in a direct repudiation of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that had ended the two year Tigray War that killed an estimated 600,000 people, the deadliest war of the 21st century to date. There are reports that the TPLF has moved tanks towards the border between Tigray and the areas controlled by the federal government in response to allegations that prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has refused to distribute funds as required by the peace treaty. Despite the rebel group/political party coordination with Eritrea, Ahmed’s government has yet to respond due to oil shortages caused by the Iran War.

The TPLF’s statement accused the federal government of refusing to provide the funds needed for the interim regional government to pay its civil services and the humanitarian aid to help Tigray rebuild after 600,000 were killed from 2020 to 2022. According to Aljazeera, 80% of the population are in need of urgent help while their healthcare system is under considerable strain due to the lack of financial support. Another major blow to Tigray’s rebuilding efforts and stability was Elon Musk’s decision to illegally shut down the US Agency for International Development (USAID) without congressional authorization; a significant source of funding.

In another alleged violation of the Pretoria Agreement, the Ethopian government has continued drone operations in the region in order to attack alleged weapons shipments among the rebel group turned political party. These strikes followed the expulsion of the head of the interim administration established by Addis Ababa (Ethopia’s federal capitol) in 2025.

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These drone strikes have continued in the region despite the peace treaty because Ahmed is concerned about the growing alliance between the TPLF and Eritrea. While the Red Sea country’s army fought alongside Ethopia’s during the initial war, Ahmed has taken a threatening posture towards Eritrea as he wants to restore his country’s access to the sea. An alliance with the TPLF allows the Eritrean government to have a direct military counter to Addis Ababa within the aggressors border that they can coordinate with.

In response to the growing tensions, the Ethopian government has done nothing outside of its drone campaign and stripping the political party/rebel group of its legal status. The country’s government has been hamstrung in its response to the various rebel groups and tensions as its oil reserves have dwindled to nothing as a result of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If Trump’s peace deal actually holds, it’s likely that Ahmed’s government will be able to rebuild its reserves and respond.

As the Pretoria Agreement continues to unravel, the Horn of Africa is about to collapse into a level of violence and death that the globe hasn’t seen since World War 2. The Sudanese Civil War has already tainted Ethopia when Ahmed allowed the genocidal rebel Rapid Support Force to conduct operations from his country’s borders and it’s wildly expected that if the Tigray War were to restart, it would expand across the border as the three foreign powers would use it to expand their proxy war.