At 47-46, the Mariners have managed to remain in first place in their division and (if they slip out of first in the West) decent position for a wildcard spot. This playoff positioning is despite the fact that Brandon Donavan, Julio Rodriguez, Matt Brash and Cal Raleigh have all spent significant time on the injured list, on top of an offense that has struggled to hit with any sort of power.
Seattle has collectively .230/.311/.379 with an isolated slugging average at .149 which has led to 4.05 runs per game; which is a significant step down .244/.320/.420 and an isolated slugging average at 1.79 which led to 4.68 runs per game last season. And while it’s tempting to say that it’s because they’re striking out more, but the team’s strikeout rate has held steady at 23.3% from 2025 to 2026. What has happened is that the Mariners have seen their batting average on balls in play drop 11 points from .286 to .275.
The drop in the power and BABIP seems to be related to the decline in barrel rate from 8.2% in 2025 to 6.7% this season. Seattle’s bats aren’t getting as many hard hits which is leading to a decrease the number of fly balls turning into home runs as line drives have increased.
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Some of that can be attributed to the fact that Josh Naylor’s offense has fallen off because he’s making more contact on pitches outside of the zone when he swings, which has led to more weak ground balls; and the complete and utter disappearance of Raleigh’s bat even before he ended up on the injured list. Add in the decline in production from JP Crawford, and Donovan’s injuries, crippled the depth of the line up and forced the promotion of top prospect Colt Emerson.
The good news is that Cole Young’s performance in the first half of the season has made it clear that he’s the club’s everyday second basemen until proven otherwise. Young has hit .254/.315/.389 with wRC+ of 104 (league average is 100) with an above average glove in the middle infield.
Despite these issues with the offense, Seattle still has a half game lead over the Rangers with the best odds of winning the West according to Fangraphs. They’ve benefited from the entire American League deciding that this is the year to play poorly, which has produced a clogged race for wildcard spots and division races.
AL West standings
| Position | Teams | Wins | Losses | GB | RD | Playoff odds | Division odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1) | Mariners | 47 | 46 | – | +24 | 82.3% | 61.1% |
| 2) | Rangers | 46 | 46 | 0.5 | -15 | 54.6% | 26.9% |
| 3) | Astros | 46 | 49 | 2 | -48 | 31.7% | 10.1% |
| 4) | Athletics | 41 | 51 | 5.5 | -81 | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| 5) | Angels | 37 | 56 | 10 | -51 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
AL Wildcard standings
| Position | Teams | Wins | Losses | GB | RD | Playoff odds | Wildcard odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1) | Yankees | 50 | 42 | +4 | +77 | 94.5% | 61.4% |
| 2) | Guardians | 47 | 46 | +0.5 | -12 | 48.2% | 16.2% |
| 3) | Rangers | 46 | 46 | – | -15 | 54.6% | 27.7% |
| 4) | Twins | 46 | 47 | 0.5 | -14 | 42.9% | 16.2% |
| 5) | Astros | 46 | 49 | 1.5 | -48 | 31.7% | 21.5% |
| 6) | Blue Jays | 44 | 49 | 2.5 | -35 | 29.9% | 28.8% |
| 7) | Red Sox | 42 | 48 | 3 | +17 | 28.6% | 27.5% |
| 8) | Tigers | 42 | 50 | 4 | +20 | 33.4% | 14.2% |
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