Analyzing Josh Naylor's Struggles: A Slow Start in 2026

Mariners’ first baseman Josh Naylor has had a lackluster start to the season as he’s hit .258/.319/.373 with a slightly below average wRC+ of 99. This sluggish start can be attributed to third lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) he’s seen in his career, which is fueled by his second lowest barrel rate.

Naylor’s barrel rate is currently at 5.1%, his career low is 3.5% back in 2020. This has lead to a 3.3 point drop in his fly ball to home run ratio and a 39 point drop in his BABIP from last season – .315 to .276. While his line drive rate is actually up over last season, and his ground ball rate has dropped, he has grounded into 11 double plays in 324 plate appearances in 2026 – his career high is 17 double plays in 633 PAs back in 2024. It’s these decreases that have led to his decrease in production in 2026, despite an expected batting average (xBA) of .273.

But it’s not just grounders that he’s pulled, his line drives aren’t spread around as much as they were last season. It’s made it easier for the shift to take away the extra base hits he’s relied on throughout his career.

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The probable reason for Naylor’s lower barrel rate this year is the fact that he’s making more contact on pitches that he chases. Last year he made contact on 61.3% of pitches he swung at outside of the strike zone, this year it’s 66.3%. What’s wild is that he’s not chasing more than he did last year, he’s only chasing at 32% of pitches outside of the zone compared to 32.4% last season. And this is backed up by the fact that his strikeout and walk rates are right in line with his career norms.

Naylor’s biggest issue right now is that he’s making weak contact on pitches outside of the zone more frequently than he has in his career, while not chasing more.